Search for: All records

In this study we present AI Prediction of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (APE), a machine learning model that can accurately predict the Ionospheric Bubble Index (IBI) on the Swarm spacecraft. IBI is a correlation (R²) between perturbations in plasma density and the magnetic field, whose source can be Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs). EPBs have been studied for a number of years, but their day‐to‐day variability has made predicting them a considerable challenge. We build an ensemble machine learning model to predict IBI. We use data from 2014 to 2022 at a resolution of 1s, and transform it from a time‐series into a 6‐dimensional space with a corresponding EPBR²(0–1) acting as the label. APE performs well across all metrics, exhibiting a skill, association and root mean squared error score of 0.96, 0.98 and 0.08 respectively. The model performs best post‐sunset, in the American/Atlantic sector, around the equinoxes, and when solar activity is high. This is promising because EPBs are most likely to occur during these periods. Shapley values reveal that F10.7 is the most important feature in driving the predictions, whereas latitude is the least. The analysis also examines the relationship between the features, which reveals new insights into EPB climatology. Finally, the selection of the features means that APE could be expanded to forecasting EPBs following additional investigations into their onset.

The correlation between the broad line region radius and continuum luminosity (R–L relation) of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is critical for single-epoch mass estimates of supermassive black holes (SMBHs). At z ∼ 1–2, where AGN activity peaks, the R–L relation is constrained by the reverberation mapping (RM) lags of the Mg ii line. We present 25 Mg ii lags from the Australian Dark Energy Survey RM project based on 6 yr of monitoring. We define quantitative criteria to select good lag measurements and verify their reliability with simulations based on both the damped random walk stochastic model and the rescaled, resampled versions of the observed light curves of local, well-measured AGN. Our sample significantly increases the number of Mg ii lags and extends the R–L relation to higher redshifts and luminosities. The relative iron line strength $\mathcal {R}_{\rm Fe}$ has little impact on the R–L relation. The best-fitting Mg iiR–L relation has a slope α = 0.39 ± 0.08 with an intrinsic scatter $\sigma _{\rm rl} = 0.15^{+0.03}_{-0.02}$ . The slope is consistent with previous measurements and shallower than the H β R–L relation. The intrinsic scatter of the new R–L relation is substantially smaller than previous studies and comparable to the intrinsic scatter of the H β R–L relation. Our new R–L relation will enable more precise single-epoch mass estimates and SMBH demographic studies at cosmic noon.

Recent analyses have found intriguing correlations between the colour (c) of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and the size of their ‘mass-step’, the relationship between SN Ia host galaxy stellar mass (Mstellar) and SN Ia Hubble residual, and suggest that the cause of this relationship is dust. Using 675 photometrically classified SNe Ia from the Dark Energy Survey 5-yr sample, we study the differences in Hubble residual for a variety of global host galaxy and local environmental properties for SN Ia subsamples split by their colour. We find a 3σ difference in the mass-step when comparing blue (c < 0) and red (c > 0) SNe. We observe the lowest r.m.s. scatter (∼0.14 mag) in the Hubble residual for blue SNe in low mass/blue environments, suggesting that this is the most homogeneous sample for cosmological analyses. By fitting for c-dependent relationships between Hubble residuals and Mstellar, approximating existing dust models, we remove the mass-step from the data and find tentative ∼2σ residual steps in rest-frame galaxy U − R colour. This indicates that dust modelling based on Mstellar may not fully explain the remaining dispersion in SN Ia luminosity. Instead, accounting for a c-dependent relationship between Hubble residuals and global U − R, results in ≤1σ residual steps in Mstellar and local U − R, suggesting that U − R provides different information about the environment of SNe Ia compared to Mstellar, and motivating the inclusion of galaxy U − R colour in SN Ia distance bias correction.

Intraspecific variation in animal mating systems can have important implications for ecological, evolutionary and demographic processes in wild populations. For example, patterns of mating can impact social structure, dispersal, effective population size and inbreeding. However, few species have been studied in sufficient detail to elucidate mating system plasticity and its dependence on ecological and demographic factors. Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) have long been regarded as a textbook example of a polygynous mating system, with dominant ‘beachmaster’ males controlling harems of up to several hundred females. However, behavioural and genetic studies have uncovered appreciable geographic variation in the strength of polygyny among elephant seal populations. We, therefore, used molecular parentage analysis to investigate patterns of parentage in a small satellite colony of elephant seals at the South Shetland Islands. We hypothesised that dominant males would be able to successfully monopolise the relatively small numbers of females present in the colony, leading to relatively high levels of polygyny. A total of 424 individuals (comprising 33 adult males, 101 adult females and 290 pups) sampled over 8 years were genotyped at 20 microsatellites and reproductive success was analysed by genetically assigning parents. Paternity could only be assigned to 31 pups (10.7%), despite our panel of genetic markers being highly informative and the genotyping error rate being very low. The strength of inferred polygyny was weak in comparison to previous genetic studies of the same species, with the most successful male fathering only seven pups over the entire course of our study. Our results show that, even in a species long regarded as a model for extreme polygyny, male reproductive skew can vary substantially among populations.

Reverberation mapping measurements have been used to constrain the relationship between the size of the broad-line region and luminosity of active galactic nuclei (AGN). This R–L relation is used to estimate single-epoch virial black hole masses, and has been proposed to use to standardize AGN to determine cosmological distances. We present reverberation measurements made with Hβ from the 6-yr Australian Dark Energy Survey (OzDES) Reverberation Mapping Program. We successfully recover reverberation lags for eight AGN at 0.12 < z < 0.71, probing higher redshifts than the bulk of Hβ measurements made to date. Our fit to the R–L relation has a slope of α = 0.41 ± 0.03 and an intrinsic scatter of σ = 0.23 ± 0.02 dex. The results from our multi-object spectroscopic survey are consistent with previous measurements made by dedicated source-by-source campaigns, and with the observed dependence on accretion rate. Future surveys, including LSST, TiDES, and SDSS-V, which will be revisiting some of our observed fields, will be able to build on the results of our first-generation multi-object reverberation mapping survey.